#Midterm elections predictions full

Ron Johnson speaks during a press conference outside the presidential office in Kiev, Ukraine, on Sept. There are question marks about the strength of Laxalt as a candidate, considering he lost his bid for governor in 2018, though that was in a Democratic wave year and was by just 4 points. Trump endorsed Laxalt, who has backed Trump's election lies, including in Nevada, which Trump lost by more than 33,000 votes. Harry Reid, who is credited with building the ground game, there is an open question of how it will perform. And Democrats traditionally have a strong turnout operation in a state where most of the Democratic vote is concentrated in one place - Clark County (Las Vegas). It's also another state where Biden's approval rating is underwater, and if Democratic base groups aren't fired up - particularly Latino and Asian American voters in a state where they are key - that could make it difficult for Cortez Masto.Ĭortez Masto has the money advantage over likely Republican nominee Adam Laxalt, the state's former attorney general. Nevada is one of those states that always seems to be close - Biden won it by just over 2 percentage points in 2020 and Cortez Masto won it by a similar margin in 2016 when she had the benefit of presidential-year turnout. Freshman incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto has largely maintained a low profile in Washington.īut Republicans are more bullish about their chances here than in any other race. This race doesn't get as much attention as some of the others. Catherine Cortez Masto attends a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on May 27, 2021.Ĭaroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call Inc. So far, Warnock has the money advantage, raising $30 million to Walker's $9 million, as of their last filings at the end of the year. Walker has written about his battle with dissociative identity disorder and is facing allegations of domestic abuse from past relationships and that he exaggerated his post-football business success. Walker, a former Heisman-winning University of Georgia Bulldog who has Trump's endorsement, may have high name identification in the state, but he's untested as a candidate. The leading Republican in the race is former NFL running back Herschel Walker. But Biden's approval has taken a nosedive in the state, with only about a third saying they approve of the job he's doing. Notably, Warnock, the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, won his special election over former Sen.

In a surprise, Biden won Georgia, but only by fewer than 12,000 votes out of almost 5 million. Georgia has seen lots of close and heated political fights in the last few years as the Sun Belt continues to change demographically.

#Midterm elections predictions full

4 in Washington, D.C.ĭemocratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is running for his first full term after winning a special election last year. Raphael Warnock speaks at a news conference on Jan. Now let us show you what a shellacking looks like: In 1994, 2006, 2010, 20 - when the president’s party suffered big losses - overwhelming majorities said the country was headed on the wrong track before the election each president’s job rating was below 50 percent and the president’s party trailed on the generic ballot.Georgia Democratic Sen. Bush had approval ratings north of 60 percent and their parties enjoyed narrow leads on the generic ballot. What did the numbers in our NBC News poll show right before those elections? Well, a majority or a plurality of respondents said the country was headed in the right direction Presidents Bill Clinton and George W.

And right now, the arrows are pretty much pointing in the 'shellacking' territory for President Biden and the Democrats as we debut our Midterm Meter, which will use our poll to gauge the overall political environment for the president’s party.Ī little history lesson: In 19, the party controlling the White House gained House seats - five in 1998, and eight in 2002.